Lei06

[Wintermute: This BTC rally is clearly driven by leverage, with a surge in open interest contracts and sluggish spot trading] Wintermute released its weekly market report stating that Bitcoin recently broke through $80,000 and even touched about $83,000, while also reclaiming the 200-day moving average for the first time in seven months. However, this rally is clearly driven more by leveraged funds rather than spot buying. The report points out that over the past month, Bitcoin's open interest increased by about $10 billion, while spot trading volume dropped to a two-year low, a typical short squeeze scenario. Although ETFs still recorded a net inflow of $623 million and exchange BTC reserves fell to a seven-year low, the current RSI has entered the overbought zone. If spot funds fail to take over after the squeeze ends, BTC prices may face a rapid correction risk. Wintermute also stated that the current crypto market rally is more driven by the strong US stock market and leverage resonance rather than independent bull market logic. Upcoming US CPI data and changes in Federal Reserve policy expectations will be key factors to watch for whether BTC can stably hold above $80,000. $BTC

Today's platform hot coins list: $LAB / $SUI / $ZEC / $TON / $XRP / $BILL Six hot coins, six different stories today—— $LAB $4.644 | 24h high $7.656 → dropped back to $4.64 What happened today is something this series has been waiting for a long time: 72% extreme short positions were squeezed once, price surged to $7.65 — then failed to hold and crashed back. 63% shorts remain. This story is not over yet. $BILL $0.1446 | 24h +11.8%, UTC +4.0% Previously wrote about BILL in this series: W-shaped bottom, long position ratio rebounded from the 50.93% trough. Today it rose 11.8%, quietly, unnoticed — but this is the biggest gainer among these six today. $TON $2.446 | 24h +3.7%, UTC +0.74% Yesterday wrote about altcoin market, TON was the loser that day: -5.15%. Today +3.7%, starting to recover. $SUI $1.2657 | 24h -0.58%, 24h high $1.3284 Up 25% yesterday, today is digesting. No further rally, nor big drop — this is called a consolidation period after a shakeout, watching if $1.25 can hold. $XRP $1.458 | 24h +0.43%, 24h high $1.4896 Almost touched $1.49, then pulled back. $1.48-$1.49 is a short-term resistance zone; breaking through means a new trend, failing means continued consolidation. $ZEC $550.97 | 24h -3.5%, UTC -1.08% The only one continuously declining among the six. Dropped from $572 to $550, the decline is not large but no sign of rebound, the long logic only holds if supported at $546.

Arthur Hayes: We are currently in a crypto bull market, and Bitcoin will accelerate its short squeeze rally after breaking $90,000 On May 12, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated in his latest article "The Butterfly Touch" that liquidity in both the US dollar and Chinese yuan is expected to continue rising, benefiting Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin bottomed at $60,000 earlier this year, and with the tailwind of trillions of dollars and yuan about to be created, reclaiming $126,000 is a foregone conclusion. Many haters will refuse to participate in this Bitcoin rally because it has significantly lagged behind tech stocks and gold over the past 24 months. Many fail to understand why Bitcoin still matters as a hedge against reckless money printing. But it will demonstrate its sensitivity to fiat liquidity expansion. Hayes says the rally is expected to intensify because after Bitcoin breaks $90,000, many short option sellers will rush to close positions, making the price trajectory explosive. He has no idea how high Bitcoin can go but will push Maelstrom's portfolio to maximum risk unless any drastic changes occur. Heading into the midterm elections in November, the US political stance on AI and inflation is expected to become very hostile. This could be a minor slowdown in the rally. Now is the time to start investing in altcoins, except for Hyperliquid ($$HYPE) and Zcash ($$ZEC), his next favorite altcoin is NEAR. He plans to explain the argument in the next article—why the privacy narrative combined with Near's intent will create positive cash flow for the protocol. This will reverse the token's disastrous price performance and create an opportunity to make a big profit as the token quickly approaches its multi-year historical highs. This is a bull market; close your eyes and press the button. There will be times to sell, but not now. $BTC

This series has been tracking a question about LAB: When will the 72% short positions get squeezed? Today, they got squeezed once. But the story isn't over. LAB's 24h high today: $7.656. 24h low: $4.380. Current price: $4.605. From the low to the high, it rose +74.8%. From the high to now, it dropped -39.8%. These two events happened on the same day. First, let's talk about why it rose to $7.656. This series has been tracking LAB's short ratio, which has been above 72% — 7 out of 10 open positions are shorting LAB. This is an extremely crowded short position. Today, this group got hit. Latest 10 periods short ratio: 72.64% → 72.30% → 72.32% → 72.39% → 72.82% (peak) → 72.80% → 68.25% → 67.11% → 63.73% → 63.45% (latest) From the peak of 72.82%, it fell back to 63.45%. 9.37 percentage points of shorts were forced to close during the price surge to $7.656. This is a brief short squeeze — short sellers' forced buy orders push the price up, the higher it goes, the more stop losses trigger, pushing the price even higher. But $7.656 didn't hold. Open Interest (OI) explains what happened: $104 million → $104.9 million → $103 million → $98.3 million → $102.2 million → $109.8 million (peak) → $106.1 million → $90.9 million → $92.2 million → $82.2 million (latest) From the peak of $109.8 million, it dropped to $82.2 million — a reduction of $27.6 million in positions. Positions are disappearing on a large scale; it's not new entrants but a large amount of positions exiting — some forced liquidations, some voluntary stop losses, some taking profits at high levels. Looking at the Taker side, buyers were consistently more aggressive than sellers throughout — 9 out of 10 periods had a ratio above 1.0, peaking at 1.2353. This indicates the surge to $7.656 was driven by real buy orders, not fake volume. But now: UTC open $4.905, current price $4.605, UTC has dropped -6.12%. The short squeeze happened, but $7.65 didn't hold — after 9 percentage points of shorts fled, 63% still remain, OI is shrinking, and the price has fallen below the opening price. 63.45% is still an extremely crowded short position. Last time it was 72.82%, squeezed up to $7.65. Now at 63%, where will the next squeeze go? Is the $7.65 story not over yet, will the 63% shorts push the price down first? LAB completed a short squeeze today, but after the squeeze, the price returned to $4.60 — the squeeze reached $7.65, but $7.65 didn't hold, indicating no one was willing to buy there. $LAB

Many verified accounts have been following each other these days. I'll also follow back without requiring comments in the comment section. I will keep track of my follows and definitely won't miss a single one!

You can buy a jacket worth 400 for just 1099, do you want it?😱

SD did something very aggressive today. 24h low: $0.1443 24h high: $0.3559 Current price: $0.2636 From the lowest to the highest, it rose 146%. From the highest to now, it dropped -26%. These two events happened on the same day, on the same token. First, let's explain how the 146% increase came about. At UTC open, SD was at $0.1512 — this was the first price most people saw for SD today. Then it started moving. $0.15, $0.20, $0.25, $0.30, $0.35 — It peaked at $0.3559, 2.35 times the UTC opening price. This movement wasn’t a slow climb; it was vertically pulled up by buy orders. Then, some started selling. From $0.3559 down to $0.2636, a -26% drop from the top. But note, it’s still +74% from UTC open. In plain terms: those who bought early this morning are still making money. Those who chased the price after seeing it double are now at a loss. This is how SD split the market into two worlds today — One world: bought early, saw gains today, now considering whether to hold on. The other world: chased the rise, bought near $0.35, now down 26%, considering whether to cut losses. Fear & Greed Index: 49 (Neutral) — the overall market sentiment is flat, indicating SD’s movement today is its own story, not driven by the broader market. SD’s 146% gain today isn’t everyone’s story — it’s the story of those who bought early this morning. Those who chased the rise ended up with -26%. $SD

Two hacking incidents occurred in the past 36 hours, with a total loss of approximately $238,000 On May 12, GoPlus Security tweeted that two attack incidents occurred again within the past 36 hours, with a total loss of $238,000. Among them, Unihax0r lost $200,000 and had previously uploaded materials related to trading bots and Telegram; the stolen address of Eli5DeFi is related to a previous large-scale mysterious private key leak involving 574 addresses.

SUI current price $1.2812, 24H -0.95%, high $1.3284, low $1.2463. Price is sideways, but the contract data is already speaking. OI has retreated from the peak of $154.8 million to $134.9 million, shrinking by nearly $20 million. OI decline + price sideways drop = bulls are exiting. Global long ratio is 62.54%—62% of accounts are betting on SUI rising. This figure is a mirror image of the "63% shorts" structure previously noted for BTC: BTC's 63% shorts fuel short squeezes, while SUI's 62% longs represent stop-loss pressure during declines. The latest two 4H Taker buy/sell ratios: 0.90 and 0.95—active sellers have continuously dominated, and the 1.12 active buy at the OI peak did not get follow-through. Fear index is 49, neutral, and the SUI ecosystem fundamentals are sound—but 62% longs + OI top retreat + Taker turning negative, these three factors collide, so the stop-loss orders below $1.2463 are not support, but pressure. A good story does not oppose a bad structure. $SUI

It seems he really loves singing. I said, big brother, you can sing anytime, but if you miss tonight's love, you'll regret it 😂