福禄寿炒币版

Samsung Electronics' South Korean union has confirmed that today's wage negotiation talks at Samsung Electronics in South Korea have once again broken down. Tomorrow, 47,000 semiconductor workers at Samsung will start an 18-day general strike (May 21 - June 7). When the news first broke, the Korean stock market triggered a one-day circuit breaker, pushing the global chip and AI supply chain to the brink. Globally, Samsung holds over 40% of the DRAM market ("working memory" for phones/computers/servers), over 30% of the NAND market (storage space for hard drives/SSDs/phones), and over 25% of the HBM market (high-speed memory dedicated to AI servers/GPUs, essential for Nvidia/AI computing power). The supply shortage is intensifying, raising costs across the entire AI server, storage, electronics, and automotive supply chains, reigniting stagflation concerns. Will this time the safe-haven properties of gold and $BTC manifest? #三星芯片罢工：48小时倒计时

Samsung's biggest strike in 57 years countdown! South Korean stocks hit circuit breaker in one day, global chip and AI supply chains on the edge of a cliff. From May 21 to June 7, 47,000 Samsung semiconductor workers will launch an 18-day total strike; South Korean stocks just hit a historic high of 8,000 points, then plunged over 6% triggering a circuit breaker; global DRAM/NAND/HBM supply tightens further, costs rise across AI servers, storage, electronics, and automotive full chains, stagflation expectations reemerge, BTC's safe-haven attribute is being repriced. 1. Why the strike? The core conflict is very real Union demands: abolish the 50% bonus cap, participate in AI windfall profit sharing. Trigger: SK Hynix next door offers higher and more flexible bonuses, causing Samsung employees' psychological imbalance. Negotiation breakdown: talks collapsed early morning May 13; 93% of union members voted in favor of the strike. Duration: May 21–June 7, total 18 days; over 47,000 participants, the largest in Samsung's history. 2. The market has already voted with its feet: KOSPI "new high → circuit breaker" in just half a day May 15 morning session: KOSPI breaks 8,000 points for the first time, historic high. Afternoon flash crash: max -7.6%, triggered circuit breaker; closed at -6.12%. Weighted stocks dragged down: Samsung -8.6%, SK Hynix -7.7%, foreign investors net sold about $3.7 billion in one day. Essence: South Korean stock market = semiconductor stock market, Samsung + Hynix account for about 40% of the index, foreign investors heavily invested, retail investors highly leveraged, a black swan event causes a direct stampede. 3. Latest developments: court injunction + government pressure, but strike likely to proceed as scheduled May 18 court injunction: core production lines (wafer/lithography/power) must operate, union violations fined up to 300 million KRW per day; production lines won’t fully stop, but packaging, testing, logistics, and administration will be paralyzed. Employer actions: preemptive production cuts to control risk, prioritizing HBM/AI high-end orders. Labor negotiations: minor concessions on both sides, but bonus base and full coverage remain deadlocked; government threatens to initiate 30-day compulsory arbitration. Strike on May 21 likely to proceed as planned but will be a partial paralysis with core supply maintained. 4. Global impact: chip price hikes, AI slowdown, stagflation heating up Storage: Samsung’s global market share DRAM >40%, NAND ≈30%, HBM ≈25%. If strike lasts 18 days: global DRAM shortage 3%–4%, NAND 2%–3%, equivalent to losing a major manufacturer. Prices: DRAM contract prices have risen 60% this quarter, strike may push prices up another 20%–40%. Transmission: costs rise for phones/PCs/cars/AI servers, global CPI may increase another 0.2%–0.4%, stagflation expectations strengthen. AI: HBM delivery delayed 1–2 months, Nvidia/cloud providers slow capex, AI bull market cools temporarily. 5. Impact on BTC: indirect positive, safe-haven logic strengthened Direct impact: BTC mining machines use TSMC ASICs, Samsung does not produce them, so no direct impact on hash rate. This is not an ordinary labor dispute but a stress test for the global AI and semiconductor supply chain. On May 21, the global tech and crypto markets are watching Samsung’s production lines closely. #三星芯片罢工：48小时倒计时

Yesterday, after a large withdrawal from an old client, I proactively sought advice, and we talked for a long time. He said that money follows the hotspots, and it's easier to make money there. Recently, his focus has been entirely on US stocks, and he has made some profits from them. In his portfolio, he only holds some $BTC and $HYPE in spot. I said, I remember you used to make money by 'farming' early on, right? He said the dividend period for farming has passed. He mentioned that he has played with NFTs, inscriptions, and even rushed into meme coins, all of which made him money. The deeper we talked, the more I realized that a person who can always capture industry hotspots and take action to deeply participate is hard to not make money! And these happen to be my weaknesses. Whenever something new appears, I always wonder if it's just another way to scam people, and my ability to dive deep is lacking. Recognizing my shortcomings, I will start changing from now on.

On May 14, 2026, a milestone was reached in U.S. crypto regulation as the Senate Banking Committee officially passed the Cryptocurrency Market Structure Act (CLARITY Act) with a vote of 15 in favor and 9 against. This core legislation, which reshapes the U.S. digital asset regulatory framework, has successfully advanced to the subsequent legislative stages, with only four key steps remaining before it becomes law. As a major legislative effort to comprehensively regulate the U.S. crypto market, the Act will clearly define regulatory responsibilities for digital assets and improve the market compliance framework. However, its formal enactment still requires completing the full statutory process of congressional review and presidential signing. The specific core steps are as follows: 1. Senate Internal Text Unification (Cross-Committee Coordination) Currently, there are two versions of the bill in the Senate, drafted respectively by the Banking Committee overseeing the SEC and the Agriculture Committee overseeing the CFTC. The next step is to integrate and revise these two committee versions to finalize a single unified Senate bill text, eliminating internal regulatory clause discrepancies. 2. Full Senate Vote The unified bill will be submitted to all 100 Senate members for debate and voting. Although the bill has preliminary bipartisan support, it still faces core controversies: several Democratic senators have objections regarding the bill’s anti-money laundering (AML) controls, DeFi compliance rules, and political ethics clauses related to the Trump family’s crypto businesses. The bill needs to secure at least 60 votes to overcome procedural hurdles. 3. Reconciliation and Reconsideration of House and Senate Versions The U.S. House passed its own version of the CLARITY Act in July 2025. Currently, differences remain between the two chambers on stablecoin yield rules, investor protection details, and other provisions. A bicameral conference committee will be established to negotiate a unified text, which must then be approved by both chambers in a second vote to ensure complete consistency. 4. Presidential Signing and Formal Legislation The White House has expressed strong support for the bill and set a target for enactment around the U.S. Independence Day on July 4, 2026. Once both chambers complete all review steps and submit the unified bill text for presidential signature, the Act will officially take effect, becoming the top-level regulatory law for the U.S. crypto market. Core Industry Impact The advancement of this bill signals the countdown to the end of prolonged regulatory ambiguity for the U.S. crypto industry. Once enacted, it will establish a clear and accountable digital asset regulatory system, reshape compliance rules for the U.S. crypto market, and have profound effects on global crypto regulatory standards and market development trends. #CLARITY法案：委员会15:9表决通过

Brothers keep asking me what the logic is behind buying altcoins? First, altcoins are only a small position; the large position is all in $BTC. This time I didn’t touch ETH or SOL. Secondly, altcoins have already dropped to very cost-effective levels (I of course know they could still drop another 99%), but some projects are seriously working, like $SUI. I participated in their event at the Hong Kong Carnival this time, and came back to build a position without hesitation; for the AI sector, I chose $VIRTUAL; for the meme sector, I chose PEPE; for decentralized exchanges, I chose ASTER. These are all projects I personally believe have potential and a future. When most people are playing the US stock market, I stick to the crypto circle; when most people lose faith in the bull market, I feel opportunities are quietly being born again; when everyone thinks the altcoin season is impossible, I’m still willing to try; choosing places with fewer people.

There is a viewpoint that the United States does not want Iranian oil to return normally to the global market. The longer the war drags on, the more Iranian production capacity is wasted, the tighter the global supply, the more stable oil prices become, and the more the U.S. benefits. After 2010, the shale revolution transformed the U.S. from the largest importer to a net exporter (normalized after 2020). Higher oil prices ($70–100 per barrel) are most beneficial to the U.S., as shale oil profits are high, the domestic energy industry thrives, and fiscal revenues increase. Moreover, most Iranian oil fields are old, high-pressure carbonate reservoirs. Once wells are shut down, formation pressure drops rapidly, causing water invasion, gas channeling, and asphalt deposition, making it extremely difficult to restore production capacity. Many wells become permanently abandoned. After the U.S. military blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian exports fell from 2.1 million barrels per day to 500,000–600,000 barrels per day, a drop of over 70%. Storage capacity fills up in 12–22 days, forcing well shutdowns and production cuts. During the Iran-Iraq war, Iranian oil fields were bombed, blockaded, and shut down; it took 10 years post-war to recover to 60% of pre-war capacity, with many blocks permanently abandoned. If the conflict drags on for 3–5 years, Iran’s oil industry will degrade from world-class capacity to a regional wreck, with many oil fields permanently scrapped, no longer threatening U.S. oil price interests. Therefore, the U.S.’s optimal strategy is the current state: no large-scale ground war, no complete regime overthrow, no genuine negotiation to lift sanctions—just a low-intensity drag, slowly exhausting Iran’s oil and economy, causing Iran to permanently lose its oil bargaining power. What we see on the surface is always what others want you to see; behind it lies a complete chain of interests. #美伊交火：特朗普称停火仍有效

The most foolish sentence I saw in yesterday's comment section was: He only sees rise as bullish and fall as bearish. Why does it rise or fall? The essence of trading is to follow the trend. There are reasons for the market to rise and logic behind the fall; the price movement itself is the strongest signal. Following the trend is not mindless bandwagoning; it means respecting the current capital, sentiment, and trend choices, not going against the market or subjectively guessing the rise or fall. Seeing a rise as bullish respects the trend, seeing a fall as bearish shows respect for risk. Prediction is metaphysical; following the trend is the right path.

BTC has been fluctuating around 80,000 these days, but altcoins feel like restless newlyweds. The previously favored ONDO and NEAR have both rallied against the trend recently. Unfortunately, I didn't buy in. My altcoin holdings are small, only picking two with 1 million each. One of them, VIRTUAL, has also seen a good increase these days. The other is in the public chain sector and has been doing okay recently. I attended their event at the Hong Kong Carnival last month and feel the project has great potential. Still bullish on the upward trend, expecting strong financial luck in May. $ONDO $NEAR $VIRTUAL

Currently, Berkshire Hathaway's cash and short-term Treasury reserves total approximately $397.38 billion, with cash accounting for as much as 58.2% of total assets, setting a historical record high. Looking back, whenever Berkshire's cash ratio exceeded 30%, the following 1-2 years almost always saw a major crash in the US stock market or a systemic crisis. In 2000 it was the internet bubble, in 2007 the real estate and financial crisis, and in 2026 it is AI. A 58.2% all-time high cash position! This is a historically significant warning signal. Will the market crash? Unknown. When will the market crash? Unknown. Ordinary retail investors first need to reduce risk (large positions in crypto should only be in $BTC), secondly control position size (emulate Buffett's asset allocation), and finally wait for opportunities, patiently waiting for the market to return to rationality before bottom-fishing opportunities.

The offshore RMB (USD/CNH) has just broken above the 6.8 mark, reaching a new high since February 2023, appreciating about 2.6% year-to-date. Whether the decline will continue depends on the progress of the US-Iran ceasefire; if successful, it will continue to break below 6.75. The sharp drop in oil prices has eased inflation concerns, so the Federal Reserve has no need to persist with high interest rates. Tomorrow night, the strength of the US April non-farm payroll data will also affect the exchange rate. Holding USD is likely to continue losing, so go all in on $BTC!